Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's bid for re-election in solidly Republican MI-02 (R+15 Cook PVI) drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP victory, bolstered by his easy 2024 win and low-profile strength as Appropriations Committee chair. His late-January announcement solidified expectations in this rural Western Michigan district, where no credible Democratic challenger has emerged before the April 21 filing deadline. With primaries on August 4 and the general election November 3, the race lacks competitive polling or catalysts. Scenarios like a high-profile Democratic recruit, GOP primary turmoil, Moolenaar scandal, or a strong national Democratic midterm wave could narrow odds, though historical incumbent re-election rates in safe seats exceed 95%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей MI-02
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей MI-02
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
92%
Демократическая партия
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
92%
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's bid for re-election in solidly Republican MI-02 (R+15 Cook PVI) drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP victory, bolstered by his easy 2024 win and low-profile strength as Appropriations Committee chair. His late-January announcement solidified expectations in this rural Western Michigan district, where no credible Democratic challenger has emerged before the April 21 filing deadline. With primaries on August 4 and the general election November 3, the race lacks competitive polling or catalysts. Scenarios like a high-profile Democratic recruit, GOP primary turmoil, Moolenaar scandal, or a strong national Democratic midterm wave could narrow odds, though historical incumbent re-election rates in safe seats exceed 95%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's bid for re-election in solidly Republican MI-02 (R+15 Cook PVI) drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP victory, bolstered by his easy 2024 win and low-profile strength as Appropriations Committee chair. His late-January announcement solidified expectations in this rural Western Michigan district, where no credible Democratic challenger has emerged before the April 21 filing deadline. With primaries on August 4 and the general election November 3, the race lacks competitive polling or catalysts. Scenarios like a high-profile Democratic recruit, GOP primary turmoil, Moolenaar scandal, or a strong national Democratic midterm wave could narrow odds, though historical incumbent re-election rates in safe seats exceed 95%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's bid for re-election in solidly Republican MI-02 (R+15 Cook PVI) drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP victory, bolstered by his easy 2024 win and low-profile strength as Appropriations Committee chair. His late-January announcement solidified expectations in this rural Western Michigan district, where no credible Democratic challenger has emerged before the April 21 filing deadline. With primaries on August 4 and the general election November 3, the race lacks competitive polling or catalysts. Scenarios like a high-profile Democratic recruit, GOP primary turmoil, Moolenaar scandal, or a strong national Democratic midterm wave could narrow odds, though historical incumbent re-election rates in safe seats exceed 95%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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