The closely contested Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on September 20, 2026, features AfD polling leads of 35-37% against an incumbent SPD at 28-32%, creating a polarized contest that could drive higher mobilization on both sides. The 2021 baseline turnout of 70.8% sets a high threshold, yet expanded eligibility for voters aged 16 and older, combined with AfD gains and recent upticks in participation in other German state elections, supports the near-even trader split. Competitive balance stems from uncertainty over whether protest voting and counter-mobilization will exceed or fall short of that mark. Developments that could shift the balance include sustained campaign intensity or national spillover increasing engagement, versus subdued interest, voter fatigue, or lower enthusiasm among key demographics suppressing overall participation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПарламентские выборы в Мекленбурге-Передней Померании: явка вверх или вниз?
Парламентские выборы в Мекленбурге-Передней Померании: явка вверх или вниз?
Выросла
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Выросла
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely contested Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on September 20, 2026, features AfD polling leads of 35-37% against an incumbent SPD at 28-32%, creating a polarized contest that could drive higher mobilization on both sides. The 2021 baseline turnout of 70.8% sets a high threshold, yet expanded eligibility for voters aged 16 and older, combined with AfD gains and recent upticks in participation in other German state elections, supports the near-even trader split. Competitive balance stems from uncertainty over whether protest voting and counter-mobilization will exceed or fall short of that mark. Developments that could shift the balance include sustained campaign intensity or national spillover increasing engagement, versus subdued interest, voter fatigue, or lower enthusiasm among key demographics suppressing overall participation.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Объем
$114Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely contested Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on September 20, 2026, features AfD polling leads of 35-37% against an incumbent SPD at 28-32%, creating a polarized contest that could drive higher mobilization on both sides. The 2021 baseline turnout of 70.8% sets a high threshold, yet expanded eligibility for voters aged 16 and older, combined with AfD gains and recent upticks in participation in other German state elections, supports the near-even trader split. Competitive balance stems from uncertainty over whether protest voting and counter-mobilization will exceed or fall short of that mark. Developments that could shift the balance include sustained campaign intensity or national spillover increasing engagement, versus subdued interest, voter fatigue, or lower enthusiasm among key demographics suppressing overall participation.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Объем
$114Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The closely contested Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on September 20, 2026, features AfD polling leads of 35-37% against an incumbent SPD at 28-32%, creating a polarized contest that could drive higher mobilization on both sides. The 2021 baseline turnout of 70.8% sets a high threshold, yet expanded eligibility for voters aged 16 and older, combined with AfD gains and recent upticks in participation in other German state elections, supports the near-even trader split. Competitive balance stems from uncertainty over whether protest voting and counter-mobilization will exceed or fall short of that mark. Developments that could shift the balance include sustained campaign intensity or national spillover increasing engagement, versus subdued interest, voter fatigue, or lower enthusiasm among key demographics suppressing overall participation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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