The September 20, 2026, Landtag election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern produced preliminary results placing Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 5.7 percent, above the five-percent threshold required for seats. Pre-election surveys from multiple institutes consistently showed the party at or marginally above this level in the final weeks, supported by steady regional support and higher turnout that benefited smaller parties relative to the CDU and BSW, both of which fell short. Final certification by the state electoral committee could produce minor revisions, though such adjustments have historically remained well within the observed margin. These factors underpin the unanimous trader consensus on an Over outcome while leaving limited scope for reversal.