The election results on September 20, 2026, delivered AfD a 38.2% vote share in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, more than doubling its 2021 performance and securing the market's 38%+ outcome at near-certainty. Traders priced in the frontrunner position after consistent pre-election polling in the mid-to-high 30s, combined with the party's gains among previous non-voters, elevated turnout near 78%, and regional strength in eastern districts. The SPD finished a close second at 35.5%, while smaller parties including the CDU fell below the 5% threshold. Final certification or minor adjustments in official tallies remain the primary variables that could still shift the precise figure, though current counts place it firmly above 38%.