Maryland’s 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee at 94% to win the November 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer’s retirement opened a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, yet forecasters continue to rate the seat Solid Democratic given its D+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Limited Republican recruitment and fundraising have kept the opposing party’s implied probability near 5%, consistent with historical base rates for such districts. A late primary upset or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events before the general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMD-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
MD-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$15,921 Объем
$15,921 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
5%
$15,921 Объем
$15,921 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$8,513 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$7,408 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee at 94% to win the November 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer’s retirement opened a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, yet forecasters continue to rate the seat Solid Democratic given its D+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Limited Republican recruitment and fundraising have kept the opposing party’s implied probability near 5%, consistent with historical base rates for such districts. A late primary upset or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$15,921Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee at 94% to win the November 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer’s retirement opened a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, yet forecasters continue to rate the seat Solid Democratic given its D+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Limited Republican recruitment and fundraising have kept the opposing party’s implied probability near 5%, consistent with historical base rates for such districts. A late primary upset or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$15,921Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee at 94% to win the November 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer’s retirement opened a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, yet forecasters continue to rate the seat Solid Democratic given its D+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Limited Republican recruitment and fundraising have kept the opposing party’s implied probability near 5%, consistent with historical base rates for such districts. A late primary upset or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events before the general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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