Recent observations from San Francisco stations indicate a low near 58°F on September 10, 2026, aligning with the tightly matched market-implied odds across the 56–61°F bins. Persistent onshore westerly flow and a shallow marine layer maintained overnight temperatures close to seasonal normals, while residual warmth from an early-month heatwave (highs reaching the mid-80s to low-90s on September 8–9) prevented deeper cooling. Model guidance and local climatology showed limited spread due to consistent wind speeds around 10–15 mph and high humidity near the coast, leaving resolution sensitive to exact station readings and minor timing of any clearing. Updated NOAA preliminary data and microclimate variations between downtown and airport sites remain the key variables that could shift final bin assignment.