**Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 76°F at Houston Intercontinental Airport and 78°F at Hobby Airport on September 7, 2026, anchoring the market at 78-79°F with 99.5% implied probability.** Early September climatology for the region features high humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling under typical subtropical conditions, keeping lows in the mid-to-upper 70s absent a strong cold front or clear, dry air mass. The day’s maximums reached 95–97°F, consistent with above-normal warmth and minimal diurnal temperature range. No major weather systems disrupted this pattern in the preceding 48 hours, and historical analogs for the date show average lows near 74–75°F with rare drops below 70°F. Traders’ near-certainty reflects verified station data from authoritative sources rather than forecasts. The outcome could shift only if official reports undergo revision or if the market resolves on a non-standard station or threshold not aligned with primary NWS sites.