Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a trader consensus lead at 67.5% implied probability in the KY-04 Republican primary, reflecting recent polls showing him ahead of Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein by 4–9 points among likely GOP voters, though below a majority in the first public surveys released April 9–10. Massie's incumbency advantage and local name recognition have weathered heavy outside spending—over $6.7 million from pro-Israel groups backing Gallrein—despite the president's endorsement and attacks portraying Massie as insufficiently aligned with party leadership. Gallrein's 29.4% share captures momentum from joint events with Rep. Andy Barr, but his refusal to debate has drawn scrutiny. With the May 19 primary five weeks away, turnout among younger voters could widen Massie's edge, while polls suggest a competitive race in this solidly Republican district.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоТомас Мэсси 68%
Эд Галрейн 29.5%
Николь Ли Итингтон <1%
Роберт Уэллс-младший <1%
$232,924 Объем
$232,924 Объем
Томас Мэсси
68%
Эд Галрейн
30%
Николь Ли Итингтон
<1%
Роберт Уэллс-младший
<1%
Томас Мэсси 68%
Эд Галрейн 29.5%
Николь Ли Итингтон <1%
Роберт Уэллс-младший <1%
$232,924 Объем
$232,924 Объем
Томас Мэсси
68%
Эд Галрейн
30%
Николь Ли Итингтон
<1%
Роберт Уэллс-младший
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a trader consensus lead at 67.5% implied probability in the KY-04 Republican primary, reflecting recent polls showing him ahead of Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein by 4–9 points among likely GOP voters, though below a majority in the first public surveys released April 9–10. Massie's incumbency advantage and local name recognition have weathered heavy outside spending—over $6.7 million from pro-Israel groups backing Gallrein—despite the president's endorsement and attacks portraying Massie as insufficiently aligned with party leadership. Gallrein's 29.4% share captures momentum from joint events with Rep. Andy Barr, but his refusal to debate has drawn scrutiny. With the May 19 primary five weeks away, turnout among younger voters could widen Massie's edge, while polls suggest a competitive race in this solidly Republican district.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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