The market's near-certain outcome for fewer than five posts by the relevant Khamenei account reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of infrequent X activity, with official channels typically issuing statements only in response to major events rather than routine updates. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father earlier in 2026, maintains limited direct engagement on the platform despite verified accounts such as @MKhamenei_ir. No significant diplomatic announcements, military developments, or domestic policy statements have emerged in the September 15–22 window to trigger additional posts. This aligns with historical base rates for such leadership accounts, which prioritize selective messaging over high-volume output. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or formal addresses on national issues remain the primary factors that could still increase volume before resolution.