Market icon
Геополитика·хамас

Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?

Market icon
Геополитика·хамас

Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?

Gaza

>99% вероятность
Polymarket

$86,202 Объем

Gaza

>99% вероятность
Polymarket

$86,202 Объем

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.

If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.
Объем
$86,202
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2025 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2025, 11:17 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

Предложенный исход: Gaza

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Gaza

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.

If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.
Объем
$86,202
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2025 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2025, 11:17 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

Предложенный исход: Gaza

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Gaza

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?» с 100%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $86.2K с момента запуска рынка Aug 11, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?» — «Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.