Recent polls place Shas at roughly 7–8 Knesset seats on average, with individual surveys ranging from 7 to 10, keeping the 6–7 and 8–9 brackets nearly even in trader pricing. The primary driver is Shas leader Aryeh Deri’s repeated insistence that the party will neither join nor support any government without legislation securing broad exemptions for haredi yeshiva students from military service—a stance echoed by United Torah Judaism and reinforced by their recent surplus-vote agreement. This precondition adds uncertainty to turnout and vote consolidation within the religious bloc as the October 27 election approaches, while new entrants such as the Hendel-Zelekha list and overall fragmentation in the right-wing camp further compress Shas projections. Traders appear to weigh these coalition constraints and last-minute shifts more heavily than any single poll outlier.