President Donald Trump has repeatedly discussed the Insurrection Act without invoking it, most recently in a late September 2026 Time interview where he declined to rule out its use ahead of the November midterms, stating he “could use it” amid concerns over crime, immigration enforcement, and polling trends. Tensions stem from 2025 protests against ICE operations in cities including Los Angeles, Portland, and Chicago, plus 2026 incidents in Minnesota involving federal agents, though deployments have relied on other authorities like 10 U.S.C. § 12406. With Republicans facing competitive midterm races and debates over election security, traders focus on whether unrest or political calculations could prompt invocation before or around November, while noting historical restraint and legal limits on domestic military use. Upcoming midterm results and any escalation in protests remain key variables.