The Illinois 15th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its rural central Illinois base and historical voting patterns, underpins the Republican Party's 93.5% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 17 primary with over 73% of the vote and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd, who emerged from a contested primary. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points have produced consistent Republican dominance, with Miller winning reelection unopposed in 2024. Trader consensus prices in these structural factors ahead of the general election, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or significant national political shifts could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей IL-15
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей IL-15
$22,416 Объем
$22,416 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
94%
Демократическая партия
7%
$22,416 Объем
$22,416 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$15,963 Объем
94%
Демократическая партия
$6,453 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 15th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its rural central Illinois base and historical voting patterns, underpins the Republican Party's 93.5% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 17 primary with over 73% of the vote and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd, who emerged from a contested primary. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points have produced consistent Republican dominance, with Miller winning reelection unopposed in 2024. Trader consensus prices in these structural factors ahead of the general election, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or significant national political shifts could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$22,416Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 15th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its rural central Illinois base and historical voting patterns, underpins the Republican Party's 93.5% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 17 primary with over 73% of the vote and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd, who emerged from a contested primary. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points have produced consistent Republican dominance, with Miller winning reelection unopposed in 2024. Trader consensus prices in these structural factors ahead of the general election, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or significant national political shifts could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$22,416Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 15th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its rural central Illinois base and historical voting patterns, underpins the Republican Party's 93.5% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 17 primary with over 73% of the vote and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd, who emerged from a contested primary. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points have produced consistent Republican dominance, with Miller winning reelection unopposed in 2024. Trader consensus prices in these structural factors ahead of the general election, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or significant national political shifts could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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