The market's overwhelming 92.2% implied probability on fewer than 25 transits for the week of June 8 reflects the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but attacks, U.S. blockade enforcement, suspended insurance, and carrier halts reduced traffic to a trickle of 4–14 daily transits in early-to-mid June, according to Kpler and MarineTraffic data. A framework peace agreement announced around June 11–15 produced only initial cautious movements by a handful of tankers, with full normalization delayed until after the June 19 signing and demining. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices in persistent security risks and stranded Gulf tonnage exceeding 1,500 vessels. A material upward revision would require either an earlier-than-expected surge in verified crossings or a rapid post-deal clearance of backlogged traffic before week-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
<25 98.6%
25-49 2.1%
50-74 1.0%
75-99 <1%
$89,454 Объем
$89,454 Объем
14 июн. 2026 г.
<25
Yes
25-49
No
50-74
No
75-99
No
100+
No
<25 98.6%
25-49 2.1%
50-74 1.0%
75-99 <1%
$89,454 Объем
$89,454 Объем
14 июн. 2026 г.
<25
$38,223 Объем
Yes
25-49
$18,061 Объем
No
50-74
$9,603 Объем
No
75-99
$6,084 Объем
No
100+
$17,483 Объем
No
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The market's overwhelming 92.2% implied probability on fewer than 25 transits for the week of June 8 reflects the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but attacks, U.S. blockade enforcement, suspended insurance, and carrier halts reduced traffic to a trickle of 4–14 daily transits in early-to-mid June, according to Kpler and MarineTraffic data. A framework peace agreement announced around June 11–15 produced only initial cautious movements by a handful of tankers, with full normalization delayed until after the June 19 signing and demining. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices in persistent security risks and stranded Gulf tonnage exceeding 1,500 vessels. A material upward revision would require either an earlier-than-expected surge in verified crossings or a rapid post-deal clearance of backlogged traffic before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Объем
$89,454Дата окончания
14 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Yes
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Yes
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The market's overwhelming 92.2% implied probability on fewer than 25 transits for the week of June 8 reflects the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but attacks, U.S. blockade enforcement, suspended insurance, and carrier halts reduced traffic to a trickle of 4–14 daily transits in early-to-mid June, according to Kpler and MarineTraffic data. A framework peace agreement announced around June 11–15 produced only initial cautious movements by a handful of tankers, with full normalization delayed until after the June 19 signing and demining. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices in persistent security risks and stranded Gulf tonnage exceeding 1,500 vessels. A material upward revision would require either an earlier-than-expected surge in verified crossings or a rapid post-deal clearance of backlogged traffic before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$89,454Дата окончания
14 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Yes
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Yes
The market's overwhelming 92.2% implied probability on fewer than 25 transits for the week of June 8 reflects the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but attacks, U.S. blockade enforcement, suspended insurance, and carrier halts reduced traffic to a trickle of 4–14 daily transits in early-to-mid June, according to Kpler and MarineTraffic data. A framework peace agreement announced around June 11–15 produced only initial cautious movements by a handful of tankers, with full normalization delayed until after the June 19 signing and demining. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices in persistent security risks and stranded Gulf tonnage exceeding 1,500 vessels. A material upward revision would require either an earlier-than-expected surge in verified crossings or a rapid post-deal clearance of backlogged traffic before week-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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