**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including a US naval blockade and Iranian route controls, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at severely depressed levels.** Daily commodity vessel crossings in early-to-mid August 2026 hovered in single digits—often 4–14 per day per Kpler and MarineTraffic data—far below the pre-war average of roughly 130, due to elevated war-risk insurance premiums, attacks on shipping, and widespread rerouting or AIS-dark operations. This environment produced weekly totals firmly in the 25–49 range, aligning with the market’s 99.7% implied probability for that bin. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough easing sanctions exposure or restoring secure southern-corridor access could lift volumes, but persistent hostilities and compliance risks make such a shift unlikely in the near term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 10 августа?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 10 августа?
25-49 99.6%
<25 <1%
50–74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$79,364 Объем
$79,364 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
<25
Нет
25-49
Да
50–74
Нет
75-99
Нет
100+
Нет
25-49 99.6%
<25 <1%
50–74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$79,364 Объем
$79,364 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
<25
$27,624 Объем
Нет
25-49
$32,717 Объем
Да
50–74
$13,811 Объем
Нет
75-99
$3,833 Объем
Нет
100+
$1,379 Объем
Нет
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including a US naval blockade and Iranian route controls, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at severely depressed levels.** Daily commodity vessel crossings in early-to-mid August 2026 hovered in single digits—often 4–14 per day per Kpler and MarineTraffic data—far below the pre-war average of roughly 130, due to elevated war-risk insurance premiums, attacks on shipping, and widespread rerouting or AIS-dark operations. This environment produced weekly totals firmly in the 25–49 range, aligning with the market’s 99.7% implied probability for that bin. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough easing sanctions exposure or restoring secure southern-corridor access could lift volumes, but persistent hostilities and compliance risks make such a shift unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Объем
$79,364Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including a US naval blockade and Iranian route controls, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at severely depressed levels.** Daily commodity vessel crossings in early-to-mid August 2026 hovered in single digits—often 4–14 per day per Kpler and MarineTraffic data—far below the pre-war average of roughly 130, due to elevated war-risk insurance premiums, attacks on shipping, and widespread rerouting or AIS-dark operations. This environment produced weekly totals firmly in the 25–49 range, aligning with the market’s 99.7% implied probability for that bin. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough easing sanctions exposure or restoring secure southern-corridor access could lift volumes, but persistent hostilities and compliance risks make such a shift unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$79,364Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including a US naval blockade and Iranian route controls, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at severely depressed levels.** Daily commodity vessel crossings in early-to-mid August 2026 hovered in single digits—often 4–14 per day per Kpler and MarineTraffic data—far below the pre-war average of roughly 130, due to elevated war-risk insurance premiums, attacks on shipping, and widespread rerouting or AIS-dark operations. This environment produced weekly totals firmly in the 25–49 range, aligning with the market’s 99.7% implied probability for that bin. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough easing sanctions exposure or restoring secure southern-corridor access could lift volumes, but persistent hostilities and compliance risks make such a shift unlikely in the near term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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