The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 2026 decision striking down the Democratic-backed congressional map and restoring the prior lines is the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations near seven or eight Democratic seats. Under the reinstated boundaries the current 6-5 split persists, with only VA-01 and VA-02 rated as genuinely competitive by forecasters. National midterm headwinds against the Trump administration and strong Democratic performance in suburban polling have lifted the implied odds of flipping one or both of those districts, while the remaining nine seats appear structurally safe for their respective parties. With primaries completed and roughly eight weeks remaining, late shifts in turnout, candidate-specific developments, or national polling could still separate the 7-seat and 8-seat outcomes that currently dominate market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено7 36%
8 31%
9+ 23%
6 16%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
<5
<1%
5
<1%
6
16%
7
36%
8
31%
9+
23%
7 36%
8 31%
9+ 23%
6 16%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
<5
$360 Объем
<1%
5
$387 Объем
<1%
6
$2,021 Объем
16%
7
$1,472 Объем
36%
8
$1,040 Объем
31%
9+
$1,542 Объем
23%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 2026 decision striking down the Democratic-backed congressional map and restoring the prior lines is the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations near seven or eight Democratic seats. Under the reinstated boundaries the current 6-5 split persists, with only VA-01 and VA-02 rated as genuinely competitive by forecasters. National midterm headwinds against the Trump administration and strong Democratic performance in suburban polling have lifted the implied odds of flipping one or both of those districts, while the remaining nine seats appear structurally safe for their respective parties. With primaries completed and roughly eight weeks remaining, late shifts in turnout, candidate-specific developments, or national polling could still separate the 7-seat and 8-seat outcomes that currently dominate market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
Объем
$6,822Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 2026 decision striking down the Democratic-backed congressional map and restoring the prior lines is the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations near seven or eight Democratic seats. Under the reinstated boundaries the current 6-5 split persists, with only VA-01 and VA-02 rated as genuinely competitive by forecasters. National midterm headwinds against the Trump administration and strong Democratic performance in suburban polling have lifted the implied odds of flipping one or both of those districts, while the remaining nine seats appear structurally safe for their respective parties. With primaries completed and roughly eight weeks remaining, late shifts in turnout, candidate-specific developments, or national polling could still separate the 7-seat and 8-seat outcomes that currently dominate market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$6,822Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 2026 decision striking down the Democratic-backed congressional map and restoring the prior lines is the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations near seven or eight Democratic seats. Under the reinstated boundaries the current 6-5 split persists, with only VA-01 and VA-02 rated as genuinely competitive by forecasters. National midterm headwinds against the Trump administration and strong Democratic performance in suburban polling have lifted the implied odds of flipping one or both of those districts, while the remaining nine seats appear structurally safe for their respective parties. With primaries completed and roughly eight weeks remaining, late shifts in turnout, candidate-specific developments, or national polling could still separate the 7-seat and 8-seat outcomes that currently dominate market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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