Traders see 19–21 Democratic House seats in New York as the most probable outcomes because the state’s six to seven competitive districts—particularly NY-17 (Lawler vs. Conley), NY-4, NY-3, NY-1, and NY-19—remain closely contested under the current map upheld by the Supreme Court. Modest Democratic advantages on the national generic ballot and historical midterm patterns for the opposition party provide tailwinds, while recent June primaries produced no major shifts in safe Democratic seats and left candidate recruitment and fundraising in the swing districts as the decisive variables. Polling and ratings in these battlegrounds cluster around narrow margins or slight Democratic leans, limiting expectations for large net gains or losses from the current 19-seat Democratic delegation. Late-cycle turnout in suburban and Hudson Valley areas could still move one or two seats either direction before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено20 37%
21+ 26%
19 25%
18 6.2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Менее 16
<1%
16
1%
17
1%
18
6%
19
25%
20
37%
21+
26%
20 37%
21+ 26%
19 25%
18 6.2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Менее 16
$559 Объем
<1%
16
$374 Объем
1%
17
$791 Объем
1%
18
$983 Объем
6%
19
$2,484 Объем
25%
20
$1,238 Объем
37%
21+
$935 Объем
26%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see 19–21 Democratic House seats in New York as the most probable outcomes because the state’s six to seven competitive districts—particularly NY-17 (Lawler vs. Conley), NY-4, NY-3, NY-1, and NY-19—remain closely contested under the current map upheld by the Supreme Court. Modest Democratic advantages on the national generic ballot and historical midterm patterns for the opposition party provide tailwinds, while recent June primaries produced no major shifts in safe Democratic seats and left candidate recruitment and fundraising in the swing districts as the decisive variables. Polling and ratings in these battlegrounds cluster around narrow margins or slight Democratic leans, limiting expectations for large net gains or losses from the current 19-seat Democratic delegation. Late-cycle turnout in suburban and Hudson Valley areas could still move one or two seats either direction before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Объем
$7,365Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see 19–21 Democratic House seats in New York as the most probable outcomes because the state’s six to seven competitive districts—particularly NY-17 (Lawler vs. Conley), NY-4, NY-3, NY-1, and NY-19—remain closely contested under the current map upheld by the Supreme Court. Modest Democratic advantages on the national generic ballot and historical midterm patterns for the opposition party provide tailwinds, while recent June primaries produced no major shifts in safe Democratic seats and left candidate recruitment and fundraising in the swing districts as the decisive variables. Polling and ratings in these battlegrounds cluster around narrow margins or slight Democratic leans, limiting expectations for large net gains or losses from the current 19-seat Democratic delegation. Late-cycle turnout in suburban and Hudson Valley areas could still move one or two seats either direction before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$7,365Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 19–21 Democratic House seats in New York as the most probable outcomes because the state’s six to seven competitive districts—particularly NY-17 (Lawler vs. Conley), NY-4, NY-3, NY-1, and NY-19—remain closely contested under the current map upheld by the Supreme Court. Modest Democratic advantages on the national generic ballot and historical midterm patterns for the opposition party provide tailwinds, while recent June primaries produced no major shifts in safe Democratic seats and left candidate recruitment and fundraising in the swing districts as the decisive variables. Polling and ratings in these battlegrounds cluster around narrow margins or slight Democratic leans, limiting expectations for large net gains or losses from the current 19-seat Democratic delegation. Late-cycle turnout in suburban and Hudson Valley areas could still move one or two seats either direction before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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37%
Да
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22%
Да
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51%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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