Short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological agencies have converged on a Warsaw daily maximum of 23°C for August 13, driven by stable high pressure, light northeasterly winds, and limited daytime heating without significant warm-air advection. This aligns with the official measurement station at Warsaw Chopin Airport and typical mid-August climatology for the region, where average highs hover near 23°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders' assessment of these model outputs and real-time observations. Scenarios that could shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover reducing insolation, a late wind shift, or revisions in the final 24-hour temperature record from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.