Official meteorological observations for Shenzhen on September 16 recorded a daily maximum of 30°C, aligning with subtropical monsoon conditions featuring light easterly winds, 60-80% humidity, and partly cloudy skies that limited further heating. Multiple station reports and model outputs converged on highs of 30-31°C, consistent with mid-September climatology where typical maxima fall in that narrow range absent strong solar heating or frontal systems. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability reflects this tight observational agreement and the market's reliance on authoritative agency data for resolution. A late upward revision in verified station readings or discrepancies across official monitoring sites could still shift the outcome.