Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting ECMWF model runs converge on a 36°C daytime maximum for Madrid on August 11, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and a warm air mass associated with an Iberian heat dome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustered between 35–38°C, reflecting modest uncertainty tied to local wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the observed peak by roughly 1°C. This alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds on 36°C, as real-time trader consensus incorporates the latest observational updates and climatological context of midsummer central Iberian Plateau heating. Minor forecast revisions from afternoon soundings remain the primary variable that could alter resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 11 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Мадриде 11 августа?
36°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$80,380 Объем
$80,380 Объем
11 авг. 2026 г.
32°C or below
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$80,380 Объем
$80,380 Объем
11 авг. 2026 г.
32°C or below
$2,040 Объем
No
33°C
$623 Объем
No
34°C
$2,331 Объем
No
35°C
$10,857 Объем
No
36°C
$25,161 Объем
Yes
37°C
$16,727 Объем
No
38°C
$11,617 Объем
No
39°C
$7,543 Объем
No
40°C
$2,538 Объем
No
41°C
$578 Объем
No
42°C or higher
$364 Объем
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting ECMWF model runs converge on a 36°C daytime maximum for Madrid on August 11, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and a warm air mass associated with an Iberian heat dome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustered between 35–38°C, reflecting modest uncertainty tied to local wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the observed peak by roughly 1°C. This alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds on 36°C, as real-time trader consensus incorporates the latest observational updates and climatological context of midsummer central Iberian Plateau heating. Minor forecast revisions from afternoon soundings remain the primary variable that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Объем
$80,380Дата окончания
11 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting ECMWF model runs converge on a 36°C daytime maximum for Madrid on August 11, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and a warm air mass associated with an Iberian heat dome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustered between 35–38°C, reflecting modest uncertainty tied to local wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the observed peak by roughly 1°C. This alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds on 36°C, as real-time trader consensus incorporates the latest observational updates and climatological context of midsummer central Iberian Plateau heating. Minor forecast revisions from afternoon soundings remain the primary variable that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$80,380Дата окончания
11 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting ECMWF model runs converge on a 36°C daytime maximum for Madrid on August 11, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and a warm air mass associated with an Iberian heat dome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustered between 35–38°C, reflecting modest uncertainty tied to local wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the observed peak by roughly 1°C. This alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds on 36°C, as real-time trader consensus incorporates the latest observational updates and climatological context of midsummer central Iberian Plateau heating. Minor forecast revisions from afternoon soundings remain the primary variable that could alter resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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