xAI's aggressive scaling of its Colossus supercomputer and simultaneous training of multiple large language models underpin trader expectations around a Grok 4.4 release. Elon Musk has highlighted near-term plans for a 1-trillion-parameter version following Grok 4's July 2025 launch and subsequent 4.1 and 4.3 iterations, yet recent reports indicate the early-May target slipped amid infrastructure adjustments and a pivot toward a 1.5-trillion-parameter model. Competitive pressure from rivals releasing frequent updates, combined with xAI's history of rapid but sometimes delayed foundational releases, keeps the timeline fluid. Key near-term catalysts include any official confirmation of training completion or API availability that could resolve the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGrok 4.4 released by...?
Grok 4.4 released by...?
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
May 31
47%
June 15
50%
June 30
52%
$20 Объем
May 31
$20 Объем
47%
June 15
$0 Объем
50%
June 30
$0 Объем
52%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's aggressive scaling of its Colossus supercomputer and simultaneous training of multiple large language models underpin trader expectations around a Grok 4.4 release. Elon Musk has highlighted near-term plans for a 1-trillion-parameter version following Grok 4's July 2025 launch and subsequent 4.1 and 4.3 iterations, yet recent reports indicate the early-May target slipped amid infrastructure adjustments and a pivot toward a 1.5-trillion-parameter model. Competitive pressure from rivals releasing frequent updates, combined with xAI's history of rapid but sometimes delayed foundational releases, keeps the timeline fluid. Key near-term catalysts include any official confirmation of training completion or API availability that could resolve the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Объем
$20Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's aggressive scaling of its Colossus supercomputer and simultaneous training of multiple large language models underpin trader expectations around a Grok 4.4 release. Elon Musk has highlighted near-term plans for a 1-trillion-parameter version following Grok 4's July 2025 launch and subsequent 4.1 and 4.3 iterations, yet recent reports indicate the early-May target slipped amid infrastructure adjustments and a pivot toward a 1.5-trillion-parameter model. Competitive pressure from rivals releasing frequent updates, combined with xAI's history of rapid but sometimes delayed foundational releases, keeps the timeline fluid. Key near-term catalysts include any official confirmation of training completion or API availability that could resolve the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$20Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's aggressive scaling of its Colossus supercomputer and simultaneous training of multiple large language models underpin trader expectations around a Grok 4.4 release. Elon Musk has highlighted near-term plans for a 1-trillion-parameter version following Grok 4's July 2025 launch and subsequent 4.1 and 4.3 iterations, yet recent reports indicate the early-May target slipped amid infrastructure adjustments and a pivot toward a 1.5-trillion-parameter model. Competitive pressure from rivals releasing frequent updates, combined with xAI's history of rapid but sometimes delayed foundational releases, keeps the timeline fluid. Key near-term catalysts include any official confirmation of training completion or API availability that could resolve the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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