Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыборы мэра Большого Манчестера: предел победы
Выборы мэра Большого Манчестера: предел победы
Бев Крейг 15%+ 100.0%
Бев Крейг 10–15% <1%
Бев Крейг 5–10% <1%
Бев Крейг <5% <1%
$14,751 Объем
$14,751 Объем
30 июл. 2026 г.
Бев Крейг 15%+
Да
Бев Крейг 10–15%
Нет
Бев Крейг 5–10%
Нет
Бев Крейг <5%
Нет
Сиан Астли <5%
Нет
Сиан Астли 5%+
Нет
Другое
Нет
Бев Крейг 15%+ 100.0%
Бев Крейг 10–15% <1%
Бев Крейг 5–10% <1%
Бев Крейг <5% <1%
$14,751 Объем
$14,751 Объем
30 июл. 2026 г.
Бев Крейг 15%+
$7,660 Объем
Да
Бев Крейг 10–15%
$983 Объем
Нет
Бев Крейг 5–10%
$1,330 Объем
Нет
Бев Крейг <5%
$1,466 Объем
Нет
Сиан Астли <5%
$731 Объем
Нет
Сиан Астли 5%+
$1,430 Объем
Нет
Другое
$1,150 Объем
Нет
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Объем
$14,751Дата окончания
30 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Объем
$14,751Дата окончания
30 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Массачусетса в 2026 году с отрывом в 40% или более?
48%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах губернатора Нью-Гэмпшира 2026 года с преимуществом в 3-6%?
45%
Да
Выиграет ли кандидат от Демократической партии губернаторские выборы в Коннектикуте в 2026 году с разницей в 5%-10%?
25%
Да
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