Florida's 2026 Senate race between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon features a sizable Republican registration edge of roughly 1.5 million voters, yet recent polls show Moody leading by 6–10 points or essentially tied among likely voters. Midterm turnout historically ranges from 7.8 million in 2022 to 8.3 million in 2018, with primary participation around 25 percent statewide and Republicans outperforming Democrats in most counties. Early and mail voting has begun, with over 2 million ballots requested and initial returns showing Democrats slightly ahead in mail returns. No-party-affiliation voters, get-out-the-vote intensity, and any last-minute shifts in independent or crossover participation remain the main variables that could push total votes toward the lower or upper end of the 7.5–9 million range currently favored by traders.