Florida's 4th congressional district remains structurally Republican, with incumbent Aaron Bean seeking a third term after winning 57.3% in 2024 against a Democratic opponent. The district's partisan voting index and voter composition have consistently produced Republican majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by the state's new congressional map. Both parties hold August 18 primaries ahead of the November 3 general election, but Democratic candidates face an uphill path in fundraising and name recognition relative to the sitting representative. No major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events have altered this positioning in the past month, leaving the market's implied probability aligned with the district's historical baseline and early-cycle fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-04
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-04
$11,781 Объем
$11,781 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
81%
Демократическая партия
20%
$11,781 Объем
$11,781 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$6,745 Объем
81%
Демократическая партия
$5,036 Объем
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district remains structurally Republican, with incumbent Aaron Bean seeking a third term after winning 57.3% in 2024 against a Democratic opponent. The district's partisan voting index and voter composition have consistently produced Republican majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by the state's new congressional map. Both parties hold August 18 primaries ahead of the November 3 general election, but Democratic candidates face an uphill path in fundraising and name recognition relative to the sitting representative. No major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events have altered this positioning in the past month, leaving the market's implied probability aligned with the district's historical baseline and early-cycle fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Объем
$11,781Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district remains structurally Republican, with incumbent Aaron Bean seeking a third term after winning 57.3% in 2024 against a Democratic opponent. The district's partisan voting index and voter composition have consistently produced Republican majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by the state's new congressional map. Both parties hold August 18 primaries ahead of the November 3 general election, but Democratic candidates face an uphill path in fundraising and name recognition relative to the sitting representative. No major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events have altered this positioning in the past month, leaving the market's implied probability aligned with the district's historical baseline and early-cycle fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$11,781Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 4th congressional district remains structurally Republican, with incumbent Aaron Bean seeking a third term after winning 57.3% in 2024 against a Democratic opponent. The district's partisan voting index and voter composition have consistently produced Republican majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by the state's new congressional map. Both parties hold August 18 primaries ahead of the November 3 general election, but Democratic candidates face an uphill path in fundraising and name recognition relative to the sitting representative. No major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events have altered this positioning in the past month, leaving the market's implied probability aligned with the district's historical baseline and early-cycle fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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