Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a significant structural advantage in Florida’s 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican lean reflected in uniform “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from major handicappers. Primary contests scheduled for August 18 will determine the general election nominees ahead of the November 3 vote, with Bean facing limited intra-party opposition while Democrats field multiple candidates including Michael Kirwan and LaShonda Holloway. The seat’s partisan voting index and Bean’s 2024 margin of roughly 15 points underpin trader consensus that favors the Republican nominee, though Democratic fundraising efforts and turnout patterns in the Jacksonville area remain variables that could influence final positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-04
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-04
$11,781 Объем
$11,781 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
81%
Демократическая партия
20%
$11,781 Объем
$11,781 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$6,745 Объем
81%
Демократическая партия
$5,036 Объем
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a significant structural advantage in Florida’s 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican lean reflected in uniform “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from major handicappers. Primary contests scheduled for August 18 will determine the general election nominees ahead of the November 3 vote, with Bean facing limited intra-party opposition while Democrats field multiple candidates including Michael Kirwan and LaShonda Holloway. The seat’s partisan voting index and Bean’s 2024 margin of roughly 15 points underpin trader consensus that favors the Republican nominee, though Democratic fundraising efforts and turnout patterns in the Jacksonville area remain variables that could influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Объем
$11,781Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a significant structural advantage in Florida’s 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican lean reflected in uniform “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from major handicappers. Primary contests scheduled for August 18 will determine the general election nominees ahead of the November 3 vote, with Bean facing limited intra-party opposition while Democrats field multiple candidates including Michael Kirwan and LaShonda Holloway. The seat’s partisan voting index and Bean’s 2024 margin of roughly 15 points underpin trader consensus that favors the Republican nominee, though Democratic fundraising efforts and turnout patterns in the Jacksonville area remain variables that could influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$11,781Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a significant structural advantage in Florida’s 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican lean reflected in uniform “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from major handicappers. Primary contests scheduled for August 18 will determine the general election nominees ahead of the November 3 vote, with Bean facing limited intra-party opposition while Democrats field multiple candidates including Michael Kirwan and LaShonda Holloway. The seat’s partisan voting index and Bean’s 2024 margin of roughly 15 points underpin trader consensus that favors the Republican nominee, though Democratic fundraising efforts and turnout patterns in the Jacksonville area remain variables that could influence final positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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