**Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials have floated targeted capital gains relief measures in 2026, such as indexing gains to inflation or raising the primary residence exclusion, but these face significant procedural and political hurdles with little time left before year-end.** The comprehensive One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025 made most prior tax cuts permanent and addressed many expiring provisions without reducing the headline long-term capital gains rates (still 0/15/20 percent plus the 3.8 percent net investment income tax). Subsequent proposals have remained largely aspirational, with limited legislative days, internal GOP divisions, and competing priorities reducing the odds of passage. Traders view any further broad rate cut by December 2026 as improbable absent a new reconciliation package or unexpected bipartisan momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
14% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials have floated targeted capital gains relief measures in 2026, such as indexing gains to inflation or raising the primary residence exclusion, but these face significant procedural and political hurdles with little time left before year-end.**
The comprehensive One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025 made most prior tax cuts permanent and addressed many expiring provisions without reducing the headline long-term capital gains rates (still 0/15/20 percent plus the 3.8 percent net investment income tax). Subsequent proposals have remained largely aspirational, with limited legislative days, internal GOP divisions, and competing priorities reducing the odds of passage. Traders view any further broad rate cut by December 2026 as improbable absent a new reconciliation package or unexpected bipartisan momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Объем
$296Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials have floated targeted capital gains relief measures in 2026, such as indexing gains to inflation or raising the primary residence exclusion, but these face significant procedural and political hurdles with little time left before year-end.**
The comprehensive One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025 made most prior tax cuts permanent and addressed many expiring provisions without reducing the headline long-term capital gains rates (still 0/15/20 percent plus the 3.8 percent net investment income tax). Subsequent proposals have remained largely aspirational, with limited legislative days, internal GOP divisions, and competing priorities reducing the odds of passage. Traders view any further broad rate cut by December 2026 as improbable absent a new reconciliation package or unexpected bipartisan momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$296Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials have floated targeted capital gains relief measures in 2026, such as indexing gains to inflation or raising the primary residence exclusion, but these face significant procedural and political hurdles with little time left before year-end.** The comprehensive One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025 made most prior tax cuts permanent and addressed many expiring provisions without reducing the headline long-term capital gains rates (still 0/15/20 percent plus the 3.8 percent net investment income tax). Subsequent proposals have remained largely aspirational, with limited legislative days, internal GOP divisions, and competing priorities reducing the odds of passage. Traders view any further broad rate cut by December 2026 as improbable absent a new reconciliation package or unexpected bipartisan momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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