Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated strikes on targets near Kharg Island and associated oil tankers, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning, as these actions have disrupted loadings without altering Iranian governmental or military control over the islands. Kharg remains Iran’s primary crude export hub, handling roughly 90% of shipments and supporting several million barrels per day when operational, which has contributed to Brent crude trading near $107 amid supply concerns and reduced Strait of Hormuz transits. Recent U.S. measures, such as tanker interdictions and blockade enforcement, alongside Iranian responses including maritime exclusion zones and shipping adjustments, have elevated energy price volatility and sanctions exposure without evidence of territorial shifts. Postponed Iran-Oman navigation talks and ongoing regional dynamics around the Strait of Hormuz introduce near-term variables that could influence control perceptions ahead of the September 30 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$147,725 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
September 30
1%
$147,725 Объем
September 30
$94,949 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated strikes on targets near Kharg Island and associated oil tankers, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning, as these actions have disrupted loadings without altering Iranian governmental or military control over the islands. Kharg remains Iran’s primary crude export hub, handling roughly 90% of shipments and supporting several million barrels per day when operational, which has contributed to Brent crude trading near $107 amid supply concerns and reduced Strait of Hormuz transits. Recent U.S. measures, such as tanker interdictions and blockade enforcement, alongside Iranian responses including maritime exclusion zones and shipping adjustments, have elevated energy price volatility and sanctions exposure without evidence of territorial shifts. Postponed Iran-Oman navigation talks and ongoing regional dynamics around the Strait of Hormuz introduce near-term variables that could influence control perceptions ahead of the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$147,725Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated strikes on targets near Kharg Island and associated oil tankers, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning, as these actions have disrupted loadings without altering Iranian governmental or military control over the islands. Kharg remains Iran’s primary crude export hub, handling roughly 90% of shipments and supporting several million barrels per day when operational, which has contributed to Brent crude trading near $107 amid supply concerns and reduced Strait of Hormuz transits. Recent U.S. measures, such as tanker interdictions and blockade enforcement, alongside Iranian responses including maritime exclusion zones and shipping adjustments, have elevated energy price volatility and sanctions exposure without evidence of territorial shifts. Postponed Iran-Oman navigation talks and ongoing regional dynamics around the Strait of Hormuz introduce near-term variables that could influence control perceptions ahead of the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$147,725Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated strikes on targets near Kharg Island and associated oil tankers, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning, as these actions have disrupted loadings without altering Iranian governmental or military control over the islands. Kharg remains Iran’s primary crude export hub, handling roughly 90% of shipments and supporting several million barrels per day when operational, which has contributed to Brent crude trading near $107 amid supply concerns and reduced Strait of Hormuz transits. Recent U.S. measures, such as tanker interdictions and blockade enforcement, alongside Iranian responses including maritime exclusion zones and shipping adjustments, have elevated energy price volatility and sanctions exposure without evidence of territorial shifts. Postponed Iran-Oman navigation talks and ongoing regional dynamics around the Strait of Hormuz introduce near-term variables that could influence control perceptions ahead of the September 30 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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