Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability on Elon Musk posting 220-239 times from April 21-28, driven by real-time trackers like XTracker confirming a final tally of 227 posts on his @elonmusk account—aligning perfectly with his steady cadence of roughly 30 posts per day amid viral commentary on politics, Tesla updates, and memes. This week's unremarkable rhythm, without major events spiking or suppressing his signature high-volume X engagement, solidifies the frontrunner after the period closed on April 28. Realistic upsets would require rare resolution disputes, such as excluding replies or reposts from the official count, or an unreported late surge exceeding 239, though aggregated trader capital deems these negligible risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено220-239 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$9,748,236 Объем
$9,748,236 Объем
<20
Нет
20-39
Нет
40-59
Нет
60-79
Нет
80-99
Нет
100-119
Нет
120-139
Нет
140-159
Нет
160-179
Нет
180–199
Нет
200–219
Нет
220-239
Да
240–259
Нет
260-279
Нет
280-299
Нет
300-319
Нет
320-339
Нет
340–359
Нет
360-379
Нет
380-399
Нет
400-419
Нет
420-439
Нет
440-459
Нет
460-479
Нет
480-499
Нет
500-519
Нет
520-539
Нет
540-559
Нет
560-579
Нет
580+
Нет
220-239 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$9,748,236 Объем
$9,748,236 Объем
<20
Нет
20-39
Нет
40-59
Нет
60-79
Нет
80-99
Нет
100-119
Нет
120-139
Нет
140-159
Нет
160-179
Нет
180–199
Нет
200–219
Нет
220-239
Да
240–259
Нет
260-279
Нет
280-299
Нет
300-319
Нет
320-339
Нет
340–359
Нет
360-379
Нет
380-399
Нет
400-419
Нет
420-439
Нет
440-459
Нет
460-479
Нет
480-499
Нет
500-519
Нет
520-539
Нет
540-559
Нет
560-579
Нет
580+
Нет
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 18, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability on Elon Musk posting 220-239 times from April 21-28, driven by real-time trackers like XTracker confirming a final tally of 227 posts on his @elonmusk account—aligning perfectly with his steady cadence of roughly 30 posts per day amid viral commentary on politics, Tesla updates, and memes. This week's unremarkable rhythm, without major events spiking or suppressing his signature high-volume X engagement, solidifies the frontrunner after the period closed on April 28. Realistic upsets would require rare resolution disputes, such as excluding replies or reposts from the official count, or an unreported late surge exceeding 239, though aggregated trader capital deems these negligible risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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