Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a near-certain 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 200-219 times on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24 12:00 PM ET, driven by real-time trackers logging 184 posts through the first seven days at a steady daily average of 26, with April 24 activity—featuring viral replies on AI reasoning, political maps, and cultural critiques—projecting a final tally comfortably within range before cutoff. This reflects Musk's predictable high-volume tweeting cadence, amplified by ongoing engagement on Grok advancements and social commentary, mirroring historical patterns where he averages 25-35 posts daily amid pop culture buzz. An upset would require an unprecedented final-hour spree exceeding 35 additional posts, improbable given time constraints and his typical rhythm, though late-breaking news could spur minor shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено200–219 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,686,871 Объем
$11,686,871 Объем
<20
Нет
20-39
Нет
40-59
Нет
60-79
Нет
80–99
Нет
100-119
Нет
120–139
Нет
140-159
Нет
160-179
Нет
180-199
Нет
200–219
Да
220–239
Нет
240–259
Нет
260-279
Нет
280-299
Нет
300-319
Нет
320-339
Нет
340-359
Нет
360-379
Нет
380-399
Нет
400–419
Нет
420-439
Нет
440-459
Нет
460-479
Нет
480-499
Нет
500–519
Нет
520-539
Нет
540–559
Нет
560-579
Нет
Более 580
Нет
200–219 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,686,871 Объем
$11,686,871 Объем
<20
Нет
20-39
Нет
40-59
Нет
60-79
Нет
80–99
Нет
100-119
Нет
120–139
Нет
140-159
Нет
160-179
Нет
180-199
Нет
200–219
Да
220–239
Нет
240–259
Нет
260-279
Нет
280-299
Нет
300-319
Нет
320-339
Нет
340-359
Нет
360-379
Нет
380-399
Нет
400–419
Нет
420-439
Нет
440-459
Нет
460-479
Нет
480-499
Нет
500–519
Нет
520-539
Нет
540–559
Нет
560-579
Нет
Более 580
Нет
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a near-certain 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 200-219 times on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24 12:00 PM ET, driven by real-time trackers logging 184 posts through the first seven days at a steady daily average of 26, with April 24 activity—featuring viral replies on AI reasoning, political maps, and cultural critiques—projecting a final tally comfortably within range before cutoff. This reflects Musk's predictable high-volume tweeting cadence, amplified by ongoing engagement on Grok advancements and social commentary, mirroring historical patterns where he averages 25-35 posts daily amid pop culture buzz. An upset would require an unprecedented final-hour spree exceeding 35 additional posts, improbable given time constraints and his typical rhythm, though late-breaking news could spur minor shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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