Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10 to April 17, 2026, driven by live tracking data from tools like XTracker confirming a final tally of 304 posts as of early April 17 EST, with the period now at 100% completion. This reflects his steady social media engagement pace of 43 posts per day—consistent with recent patterns amid viral discussions on Grok 4.3 beta capabilities, Neuralink advancements, and AI-driven universal income debates—without notable spikes or lulls over the past week. While overwhelming precursor counts cement the frontrunner, a realistic upset would require rare resolution disputes over post inclusions or uncounted replies, though traders see negligible risk given verified tallies and historical counting precedents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено300-319 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40–59 <1%
$13,942,624 Объем
$13,942,624 Объем
<20
Нет
20-39
Нет
40–59
Нет
60-79
Нет
80-99
Нет
100-119
Нет
120–139
Нет
140-159
Нет
160–179
Нет
180–199
Нет
200-219
Нет
220-239
Нет
240-259
Нет
260-279
Нет
280-299
Нет
300-319
Да
320-339
Нет
340-359
Нет
360-379
Нет
380-399
Нет
400-419
Нет
420-439
Нет
440-459
Нет
460-479
Нет
480-499
Нет
500-519
Нет
520-539
Нет
540-559
Нет
560-579
Нет
580+
Нет
300-319 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40–59 <1%
$13,942,624 Объем
$13,942,624 Объем
<20
Нет
20-39
Нет
40–59
Нет
60-79
Нет
80-99
Нет
100-119
Нет
120–139
Нет
140-159
Нет
160–179
Нет
180–199
Нет
200-219
Нет
220-239
Нет
240-259
Нет
260-279
Нет
280-299
Нет
300-319
Да
320-339
Нет
340-359
Нет
360-379
Нет
380-399
Нет
400-419
Нет
420-439
Нет
440-459
Нет
460-479
Нет
480-499
Нет
500-519
Нет
520-539
Нет
540-559
Нет
560-579
Нет
580+
Нет
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10 to April 17, 2026, driven by live tracking data from tools like XTracker confirming a final tally of 304 posts as of early April 17 EST, with the period now at 100% completion. This reflects his steady social media engagement pace of 43 posts per day—consistent with recent patterns amid viral discussions on Grok 4.3 beta capabilities, Neuralink advancements, and AI-driven universal income debates—without notable spikes or lulls over the past week. While overwhelming precursor counts cement the frontrunner, a realistic upset would require rare resolution disputes over post inclusions or uncounted replies, though traders see negligible risk given verified tallies and historical counting precedents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы