The Colima state congress election on June 6, 2027, features 25 seats split between majority and proportional representation, with trader prices reflecting a fragmented field where Morena holds the highest implied probability around 37% amid ongoing internal coordination polls favoring Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera. PVEM's June 2026 break from the Morena-PT alliance, combined with separate candidacies from PAN, PRI, and MC, sustains vote splitting that limits any single party's path to clear dominance. Recent installation of the INE local council and public funding allocations—Morena receiving the largest share—underscore the competitive baseline, while undecided voters and coalition negotiations in the coming precampaign period could shift seat projections and widen separation among the leading options.