Recent polling and forecaster ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball show several 2026 Senate contests clustered in the low single digits, sustaining trader focus on Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special. In Texas, Ken Paxton’s primary victory over John Cornyn produced tight head-to-head surveys against James Talarico, with margins under four points in the latest releases. Iowa’s open seat after Joni Ernst’s retirement pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek in similarly narrow Emerson and other surveys. The Ohio special between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown remains a toss-up per updated ratings, reflecting strong candidate matchups and limited separation on key voting blocs. These overlapping dynamics, combined with national midterm patterns favoring the out-party, keep implied probabilities distributed across the top contenders while leaving room for late polling shifts or turnout changes to reorder the field before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 19%
Iowa 17.0%
Ohio (Special) 16.9%
Maine 15%
$27,160 Объем
$27,160 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
19%
Iowa
17%
Ohio (Special)
17%
Maine
15%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
9%
Nebraska
6%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Colorado
2%
Georgia
2%
Montana
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 19%
Iowa 17.0%
Ohio (Special) 16.9%
Maine 15%
$27,160 Объем
$27,160 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
$733 Объем
19%
Iowa
$2,622 Объем
17%
Ohio (Special)
$4,789 Объем
17%
Maine
$1,285 Объем
15%
Alaska
$5,108 Объем
12%
Michigan
$2,246 Объем
9%
Nebraska
$275 Объем
6%
New Mexico
$160 Объем
3%
Florida (Special)
$244 Объем
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Объем
2%
North Carolina
$621 Объем
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Объем
2%
Colorado
$662 Объем
2%
Georgia
$752 Объем
2%
Montana
$616 Объем
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Объем
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecaster ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball show several 2026 Senate contests clustered in the low single digits, sustaining trader focus on Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special. In Texas, Ken Paxton’s primary victory over John Cornyn produced tight head-to-head surveys against James Talarico, with margins under four points in the latest releases. Iowa’s open seat after Joni Ernst’s retirement pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek in similarly narrow Emerson and other surveys. The Ohio special between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown remains a toss-up per updated ratings, reflecting strong candidate matchups and limited separation on key voting blocs. These overlapping dynamics, combined with national midterm patterns favoring the out-party, keep implied probabilities distributed across the top contenders while leaving room for late polling shifts or turnout changes to reorder the field before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Объем
$27,160Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecaster ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball show several 2026 Senate contests clustered in the low single digits, sustaining trader focus on Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special. In Texas, Ken Paxton’s primary victory over John Cornyn produced tight head-to-head surveys against James Talarico, with margins under four points in the latest releases. Iowa’s open seat after Joni Ernst’s retirement pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek in similarly narrow Emerson and other surveys. The Ohio special between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown remains a toss-up per updated ratings, reflecting strong candidate matchups and limited separation on key voting blocs. These overlapping dynamics, combined with national midterm patterns favoring the out-party, keep implied probabilities distributed across the top contenders while leaving room for late polling shifts or turnout changes to reorder the field before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$27,160Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and forecaster ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball show several 2026 Senate contests clustered in the low single digits, sustaining trader focus on Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special. In Texas, Ken Paxton’s primary victory over John Cornyn produced tight head-to-head surveys against James Talarico, with margins under four points in the latest releases. Iowa’s open seat after Joni Ernst’s retirement pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek in similarly narrow Emerson and other surveys. The Ohio special between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown remains a toss-up per updated ratings, reflecting strong candidate matchups and limited separation on key voting blocs. These overlapping dynamics, combined with national midterm patterns favoring the out-party, keep implied probabilities distributed across the top contenders while leaving room for late polling shifts or turnout changes to reorder the field before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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