Trader sentiment for the closest 2026 gubernatorial race centers on states with narrow historical margins, open seats from term limits, and strong cross-party recruits amid shifting state fundamentals. Iowa leads due to Democratic Auditor Rob Sand’s appeal and tariff-driven economic pressure, while Georgia’s post-Kemp contest draws attention as a potential toss-up with competitive Republican primaries. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Texas feature tight partisan leans, recent rating adjustments to toss-up or tilt status, and balanced candidate fields that could produce single-digit outcomes. Differentiators include polling volatility, approval ratings of sitting governors, and regional economic signals. Consolidation behind one state would likely follow sustained polling convergence, high-profile candidate entries, or late-cycle national events narrowing projected margins across the November 3 election window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTexas 13.9%
Iowa 11.6%
Wisconsin 11.2%
Georgia 10.3%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
14%
Iowa
12%
Wisconsin
11%
Georgia
10%
Огайо
10%
Kansas
8%
Nevada
6%
Флорида
5%
Мичиган
4%
Oregon
4%
Alaska
4%
Arizona
3%
Колорадо
2%
New Hampshire
2%
New Mexico
1%
Maine
1%
Vermont
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 13.9%
Iowa 11.6%
Wisconsin 11.2%
Georgia 10.3%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
$1,564 Объем
14%
Iowa
$1,475 Объем
12%
Wisconsin
$380 Объем
11%
Georgia
$233 Объем
10%
Огайо
$389 Объем
10%
Kansas
$1,057 Объем
8%
Nevada
$1,986 Объем
6%
Флорида
$193 Объем
5%
Мичиган
$324 Объем
4%
Oregon
$314 Объем
4%
Alaska
$201 Объем
4%
Arizona
$259 Объем
3%
Колорадо
$238 Объем
2%
New Hampshire
$250 Объем
2%
New Mexico
$189 Объем
1%
Maine
$350 Объем
1%
Vermont
$171 Объем
1%
Minnesota
$209 Объем
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment for the closest 2026 gubernatorial race centers on states with narrow historical margins, open seats from term limits, and strong cross-party recruits amid shifting state fundamentals. Iowa leads due to Democratic Auditor Rob Sand’s appeal and tariff-driven economic pressure, while Georgia’s post-Kemp contest draws attention as a potential toss-up with competitive Republican primaries. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Texas feature tight partisan leans, recent rating adjustments to toss-up or tilt status, and balanced candidate fields that could produce single-digit outcomes. Differentiators include polling volatility, approval ratings of sitting governors, and regional economic signals. Consolidation behind one state would likely follow sustained polling convergence, high-profile candidate entries, or late-cycle national events narrowing projected margins across the November 3 election window.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$9,781Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment for the closest 2026 gubernatorial race centers on states with narrow historical margins, open seats from term limits, and strong cross-party recruits amid shifting state fundamentals. Iowa leads due to Democratic Auditor Rob Sand’s appeal and tariff-driven economic pressure, while Georgia’s post-Kemp contest draws attention as a potential toss-up with competitive Republican primaries. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Texas feature tight partisan leans, recent rating adjustments to toss-up or tilt status, and balanced candidate fields that could produce single-digit outcomes. Differentiators include polling volatility, approval ratings of sitting governors, and regional economic signals. Consolidation behind one state would likely follow sustained polling convergence, high-profile candidate entries, or late-cycle national events narrowing projected margins across the November 3 election window.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$9,781Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the closest 2026 gubernatorial race centers on states with narrow historical margins, open seats from term limits, and strong cross-party recruits amid shifting state fundamentals. Iowa leads due to Democratic Auditor Rob Sand’s appeal and tariff-driven economic pressure, while Georgia’s post-Kemp contest draws attention as a potential toss-up with competitive Republican primaries. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Texas feature tight partisan leans, recent rating adjustments to toss-up or tilt status, and balanced candidate fields that could produce single-digit outcomes. Differentiators include polling volatility, approval ratings of sitting governors, and regional economic signals. Consolidation behind one state would likely follow sustained polling convergence, high-profile candidate entries, or late-cycle national events narrowing projected margins across the November 3 election window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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