China’s most recent ballistic missile activity was a July 6, 2026, submarine-launched test of a JL-2 or JL-3 missile carrying a dummy warhead from the South China Sea into the Pacific, framed by Beijing as routine annual training with advance notifications to other states. Since that event, cross-strait military signaling has remained at baseline levels, with PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ running well below 2024–2025 peaks and no new large-scale exercises or launch warnings announced. Ongoing gray-zone patrols by the China Coast Guard and standard naval drills with Russia have not escalated into missile-related activity. With roughly five months left in 2026 and no public indicators of imminent operational launches or heightened crisis triggers, trader pricing reflects the low near-term probability of another ballistic missile event occurring before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКитай запустит баллистическую ракету к 31 декабря?
Китай запустит баллистическую ракету к 31 декабря?
Да
19% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
19% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s most recent ballistic missile activity was a July 6, 2026, submarine-launched test of a JL-2 or JL-3 missile carrying a dummy warhead from the South China Sea into the Pacific, framed by Beijing as routine annual training with advance notifications to other states. Since that event, cross-strait military signaling has remained at baseline levels, with PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ running well below 2024–2025 peaks and no new large-scale exercises or launch warnings announced. Ongoing gray-zone patrols by the China Coast Guard and standard naval drills with Russia have not escalated into missile-related activity. With roughly five months left in 2026 and no public indicators of imminent operational launches or heightened crisis triggers, trader pricing reflects the low near-term probability of another ballistic missile event occurring before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Открытие рынка: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Объем
$6,888Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s most recent ballistic missile activity was a July 6, 2026, submarine-launched test of a JL-2 or JL-3 missile carrying a dummy warhead from the South China Sea into the Pacific, framed by Beijing as routine annual training with advance notifications to other states. Since that event, cross-strait military signaling has remained at baseline levels, with PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ running well below 2024–2025 peaks and no new large-scale exercises or launch warnings announced. Ongoing gray-zone patrols by the China Coast Guard and standard naval drills with Russia have not escalated into missile-related activity. With roughly five months left in 2026 and no public indicators of imminent operational launches or heightened crisis triggers, trader pricing reflects the low near-term probability of another ballistic missile event occurring before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Объем
$6,888Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China’s most recent ballistic missile activity was a July 6, 2026, submarine-launched test of a JL-2 or JL-3 missile carrying a dummy warhead from the South China Sea into the Pacific, framed by Beijing as routine annual training with advance notifications to other states. Since that event, cross-strait military signaling has remained at baseline levels, with PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ running well below 2024–2025 peaks and no new large-scale exercises or launch warnings announced. Ongoing gray-zone patrols by the China Coast Guard and standard naval drills with Russia have not escalated into missile-related activity. With roughly five months left in 2026 and no public indicators of imminent operational launches or heightened crisis triggers, trader pricing reflects the low near-term probability of another ballistic missile event occurring before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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