Trader consensus reflects Prime Minister Mark Carney’s explicit rejection of expulsion for U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra despite a petition exceeding 200,000 signatures and ongoing trade tensions involving tariffs and CUSMA negotiations. Canadian officials have described the ambassador’s conduct as falling short of the threshold for declaring him persona non grata under the Vienna Convention, while military and security cooperation between the two countries continues without disruption. The petition, scheduled for parliamentary presentation this fall with a required government response within 45 days, faces structural and diplomatic barriers that make formal action improbable before year-end. Scenarios that could still shift the implied probability include a sharp escalation in bilateral disputes, new statements or actions by the ambassador viewed as direct interference, or a change in the Carney government’s assessment of strategic interests.