Trader consensus heavily favors BTS's "Arirang" first-week album sales falling under 3 million copies (94.4% implied probability), driven primarily by the absence of any official announcement or release from the group, which remains on hiatus amid members' mandatory military service—full comeback not expected until late 2025. Historical BTS albums like Proof crushed 3 million+ first-week Hanteo sales via massive fan preorders and global demand, but without a verifiable drop date, distributor data, or preorder buzz from credible sources like Circle Chart, sales remain at zero. An upset would require an unprecedented surprise digital/physical launch with viral momentum, though tabloid rumors alone won't sway K-pop sales trackers. Key watch: Hanteo/Gaon updates next week.