Polymarket traders show a razor-thin contest for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation, with 5.00-5.49% at 38.9% edging 4.50-4.99% at 35.9%, implying consensus around 4.8% amid rising uncertainty. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year, but the latest BCB Focus survey lifted year-end 2026 expectations to 4.31%—up for 21 weeks—driven by oil price surges from Iran war disruptions, resilient services inflation, and loose fiscal policy. Copom's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75% (25 basis points) underscores caution on deanchored expectations above the 3% target. Key differentiators include March IPCA data due April 10, energy cost persistence, and May Copom outlook, with geopolitical escalation favoring higher bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено5,00–5,49% 39.0%
4,50–4,99% 35.9%
4,00–4,49% 13%
5,50–5,99% 8.2%
$37,837 Объем
$37,837 Объем
12 янв. 2027 г.
<3,00%
1%
3,00-3,49%
3%
3,50–3,99%
3%
4,00–4,49%
13%
4,50–4,99%
36%
5,00–5,49%
39%
5,50–5,99%
8%
6,00–6,49%
6%
6,50–6,99%
1%
7,00%+
3%
5,00–5,49% 39.0%
4,50–4,99% 35.9%
4,00–4,49% 13%
5,50–5,99% 8.2%
$37,837 Объем
$37,837 Объем
12 янв. 2027 г.
<3,00%
$3,053 Объем
1%
3,00-3,49%
$3,551 Объем
3%
3,50–3,99%
$5,283 Объем
3%
4,00–4,49%
$3,845 Объем
13%
4,50–4,99%
$5,093 Объем
36%
5,00–5,49%
$4,457 Объем
39%
5,50–5,99%
$3,000 Объем
8%
6,00–6,49%
$4,050 Объем
6%
6,50–6,99%
$2,879 Объем
1%
7,00%+
$2,627 Объем
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders show a razor-thin contest for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation, with 5.00-5.49% at 38.9% edging 4.50-4.99% at 35.9%, implying consensus around 4.8% amid rising uncertainty. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year, but the latest BCB Focus survey lifted year-end 2026 expectations to 4.31%—up for 21 weeks—driven by oil price surges from Iran war disruptions, resilient services inflation, and loose fiscal policy. Copom's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75% (25 basis points) underscores caution on deanchored expectations above the 3% target. Key differentiators include March IPCA data due April 10, energy cost persistence, and May Copom outlook, with geopolitical escalation favoring higher bins.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Объем
$37,837Дата окончания
12 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders show a razor-thin contest for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation, with 5.00-5.49% at 38.9% edging 4.50-4.99% at 35.9%, implying consensus around 4.8% amid rising uncertainty. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year, but the latest BCB Focus survey lifted year-end 2026 expectations to 4.31%—up for 21 weeks—driven by oil price surges from Iran war disruptions, resilient services inflation, and loose fiscal policy. Copom's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75% (25 basis points) underscores caution on deanchored expectations above the 3% target. Key differentiators include March IPCA data due April 10, energy cost persistence, and May Copom outlook, with geopolitical escalation favoring higher bins.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Объем
$37,837Дата окончания
12 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show a razor-thin contest for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation, with 5.00-5.49% at 38.9% edging 4.50-4.99% at 35.9%, implying consensus around 4.8% amid rising uncertainty. February's IPCA eased to 3.81% year-over-year, but the latest BCB Focus survey lifted year-end 2026 expectations to 4.31%—up for 21 weeks—driven by oil price surges from Iran war disruptions, resilient services inflation, and loose fiscal policy. Copom's March 18 Selic cut to 14.75% (25 basis points) underscores caution on deanchored expectations above the 3% target. Key differentiators include March IPCA data due April 10, energy cost persistence, and May Copom outlook, with geopolitical escalation favoring higher bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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