Recent polls show the AfD holding steady near 18 percent in Berlin, up sharply from its 9.1 percent result in 2023, amid a fragmented contest where the CDU, Linke, and Greens also cluster between 18 and 22 percent just over two weeks before the 20 September vote. This narrow band of support, combined with the 5 percent threshold and uncertain turnout among smaller parties, produces seat projections clustered around 26–34 mandates in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus. Trader positioning reflects the same volatility, with no outcome above 29 percent probability, as late swings in mobilization or the impact of concurrent eastern state elections could still shift the AfD’s final tally by several seats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено35+ 29.1%
29-31 25%
32-34 24%
26-28 13%
$46,694 Объем
$46,694 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<20
3%
20-22
1%
23-25
4%
26-28
13%
29-31
25%
32-34
24%
35+
29%
35+ 29.1%
29-31 25%
32-34 24%
26-28 13%
$46,694 Объем
$46,694 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<20
$1,935 Объем
3%
20-22
$6,740 Объем
1%
23-25
$2,818 Объем
4%
26-28
$3,349 Объем
13%
29-31
$4,190 Объем
25%
32-34
$3,984 Объем
24%
35+
$23,679 Объем
29%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show the AfD holding steady near 18 percent in Berlin, up sharply from its 9.1 percent result in 2023, amid a fragmented contest where the CDU, Linke, and Greens also cluster between 18 and 22 percent just over two weeks before the 20 September vote. This narrow band of support, combined with the 5 percent threshold and uncertain turnout among smaller parties, produces seat projections clustered around 26–34 mandates in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus. Trader positioning reflects the same volatility, with no outcome above 29 percent probability, as late swings in mobilization or the impact of concurrent eastern state elections could still shift the AfD’s final tally by several seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Объем
$46,694Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show the AfD holding steady near 18 percent in Berlin, up sharply from its 9.1 percent result in 2023, amid a fragmented contest where the CDU, Linke, and Greens also cluster between 18 and 22 percent just over two weeks before the 20 September vote. This narrow band of support, combined with the 5 percent threshold and uncertain turnout among smaller parties, produces seat projections clustered around 26–34 mandates in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus. Trader positioning reflects the same volatility, with no outcome above 29 percent probability, as late swings in mobilization or the impact of concurrent eastern state elections could still shift the AfD’s final tally by several seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Объем
$46,694Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the AfD holding steady near 18 percent in Berlin, up sharply from its 9.1 percent result in 2023, amid a fragmented contest where the CDU, Linke, and Greens also cluster between 18 and 22 percent just over two weeks before the 20 September vote. This narrow band of support, combined with the 5 percent threshold and uncertain turnout among smaller parties, produces seat projections clustered around 26–34 mandates in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus. Trader positioning reflects the same volatility, with no outcome above 29 percent probability, as late swings in mobilization or the impact of concurrent eastern state elections could still shift the AfD’s final tally by several seats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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