The Berlin state election held on September 20, 2026, produced final results placing the CDU at 18.8% of the second-vote share, squarely inside the 17-20% band that now commands near-unanimous trader consensus. The governing CDU-SPD coalition suffered substantial losses from its 2023 performance, with the CDU dropping roughly nine points amid voter dissatisfaction over housing costs and other local issues, while Die Linke surged to 25.7% on strong youth turnout. Pre-election polling had already shown the CDU pinned near 20%, and exit polls plus preliminary counts quickly converged on an outcome inside that narrow interval. Only a material revision during final certification or an unanticipated recount could realistically move the CDU share outside 17-20%.