Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows a fragmented contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, each clustered between roughly 16 % and 22 %. This tight distribution leaves the identity of the second-place finisher highly uncertain, producing near-identical trader-implied probabilities for the CDU and AfD and only modestly lower odds for the Linke. Volatility in successive surveys, including brief AfD leads and a recent CDU candidate adjustment, has kept second-place probabilities compressed rather than allowing any single party to pull ahead. A late swing in turnout among urban or eastern districts, or clearer consolidation behind one of the leading contenders, could separate the probabilities before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоХДС 29%
АдГ 29%
Левая 26%
Зелёные 13%
$20,072 Объем
$20,072 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
ХДС
29%
АдГ
29%
Левая
26%
Зелёные
13%
СДПГ
5%
СвДП
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
ХДС 29%
АдГ 29%
Левая 26%
Зелёные 13%
$20,072 Объем
$20,072 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
ХДС
$2,922 Объем
29%
АдГ
$3,557 Объем
29%
Левая
$5,127 Объем
26%
Зелёные
$3,886 Объем
13%
СДПГ
$2,628 Объем
5%
СвДП
$613 Объем
<1%
FW
$640 Объем
<1%
BSW
$699 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows a fragmented contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, each clustered between roughly 16 % and 22 %. This tight distribution leaves the identity of the second-place finisher highly uncertain, producing near-identical trader-implied probabilities for the CDU and AfD and only modestly lower odds for the Linke. Volatility in successive surveys, including brief AfD leads and a recent CDU candidate adjustment, has kept second-place probabilities compressed rather than allowing any single party to pull ahead. A late swing in turnout among urban or eastern districts, or clearer consolidation behind one of the leading contenders, could separate the probabilities before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Открытие рынка: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Объем
$20,072Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows a fragmented contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, each clustered between roughly 16 % and 22 %. This tight distribution leaves the identity of the second-place finisher highly uncertain, producing near-identical trader-implied probabilities for the CDU and AfD and only modestly lower odds for the Linke. Volatility in successive surveys, including brief AfD leads and a recent CDU candidate adjustment, has kept second-place probabilities compressed rather than allowing any single party to pull ahead. A late swing in turnout among urban or eastern districts, or clearer consolidation behind one of the leading contenders, could separate the probabilities before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Объем
$20,072Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows a fragmented contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, each clustered between roughly 16 % and 22 %. This tight distribution leaves the identity of the second-place finisher highly uncertain, producing near-identical trader-implied probabilities for the CDU and AfD and only modestly lower odds for the Linke. Volatility in successive surveys, including brief AfD leads and a recent CDU candidate adjustment, has kept second-place probabilities compressed rather than allowing any single party to pull ahead. A late swing in turnout among urban or eastern districts, or clearer consolidation behind one of the leading contenders, could separate the probabilities before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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