Banxico's September 24 decision carries a 95.8% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate, reflecting the central bank's repeated forward guidance for an extended pause after the May 2026 easing cycle ended. Recent inflation data, with the August headline rate at 3.26% and core near 3.88%, remain above the 3% target amid upside risks from persistent services prices, potential trade disruptions, and peso volatility, while economic slack and downside growth risks support restraint. Analyst surveys, including Citi's September poll, show consensus for rates holding at 6.50% through 2027, aligning with the Fed's stance and Banxico's updated forecasts pushing target convergence to Q4 2027. A sharper inflation decline or accelerated peso weakness tied to external shocks could still introduce volatility around the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 95.8%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 2.5%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.1%
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
$52,849 Объем
$52,849 Объем
24 сент. 2026 г.
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
96%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 95.8%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 2.5%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.1%
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
$52,849 Объем
$52,849 Объем
24 сент. 2026 г.
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
$3,662 Объем
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$12,261 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$27,353 Объем
96%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$6,540 Объем
2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$3,034 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico's September 24 decision carries a 95.8% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate, reflecting the central bank's repeated forward guidance for an extended pause after the May 2026 easing cycle ended. Recent inflation data, with the August headline rate at 3.26% and core near 3.88%, remain above the 3% target amid upside risks from persistent services prices, potential trade disruptions, and peso volatility, while economic slack and downside growth risks support restraint. Analyst surveys, including Citi's September poll, show consensus for rates holding at 6.50% through 2027, aligning with the Fed's stance and Banxico's updated forecasts pushing target convergence to Q4 2027. A sharper inflation decline or accelerated peso weakness tied to external shocks could still introduce volatility around the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Объем
$52,849Дата окончания
24 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico's September 24 decision carries a 95.8% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate, reflecting the central bank's repeated forward guidance for an extended pause after the May 2026 easing cycle ended. Recent inflation data, with the August headline rate at 3.26% and core near 3.88%, remain above the 3% target amid upside risks from persistent services prices, potential trade disruptions, and peso volatility, while economic slack and downside growth risks support restraint. Analyst surveys, including Citi's September poll, show consensus for rates holding at 6.50% through 2027, aligning with the Fed's stance and Banxico's updated forecasts pushing target convergence to Q4 2027. A sharper inflation decline or accelerated peso weakness tied to external shocks could still introduce volatility around the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Объем
$52,849Дата окончания
24 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Banxico's September 24 decision carries a 95.8% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate, reflecting the central bank's repeated forward guidance for an extended pause after the May 2026 easing cycle ended. Recent inflation data, with the August headline rate at 3.26% and core near 3.88%, remain above the 3% target amid upside risks from persistent services prices, potential trade disruptions, and peso volatility, while economic slack and downside growth risks support restraint. Analyst surveys, including Citi's September poll, show consensus for rates holding at 6.50% through 2027, aligning with the Fed's stance and Banxico's updated forecasts pushing target convergence to Q4 2027. A sharper inflation decline or accelerated peso weakness tied to external shocks could still introduce volatility around the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Оставит ли Центральный банк Колумбии процентную ставку по монетарной политике без изменений на сентябрьском заседании?
69%
Да
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
98%
Сохранит ли Центральный банк Колумбии процентную ставку денежно-кредитной политики без изменений на октябрьском заседании?
51%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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