Banxico's policy rate has held steady at 6.50% since May 2026 following the conclusion of its easing cycle, with the Governing Board signaling an extended pause amid gradual headline inflation declines to 3.12% in July and core measures near 3.95%. This positioning reflects persistent services inflation, upside risks from trade policy shifts and geopolitics, and the need for sustained evidence of convergence to the 3% target, aligning with analyst surveys expecting the benchmark unchanged through year-end. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change in November as traders price in this data-driven restraint over near-term cuts. A sharper-than-expected drop in core readings or weaker growth could still open room for a 25 basis point reduction, while renewed inflationary pressures from external shocks would reinforce the hold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 91%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 7.4%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 2.9%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
$13,587 Объем
$13,587 Объем
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
7%
Без изменений
91%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
3%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
Без изменений 91%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 7.4%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 2.9%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
$13,587 Объем
$13,587 Объем
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
7%
Без изменений
91%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
3%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Banxico's policy rate has held steady at 6.50% since May 2026 following the conclusion of its easing cycle, with the Governing Board signaling an extended pause amid gradual headline inflation declines to 3.12% in July and core measures near 3.95%. This positioning reflects persistent services inflation, upside risks from trade policy shifts and geopolitics, and the need for sustained evidence of convergence to the 3% target, aligning with analyst surveys expecting the benchmark unchanged through year-end. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change in November as traders price in this data-driven restraint over near-term cuts. A sharper-than-expected drop in core readings or weaker growth could still open room for a 25 basis point reduction, while renewed inflationary pressures from external shocks would reinforce the hold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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