Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26—despite February headline inflation accelerating to 4.02% year-over-year, exceeding the 3% midpoint target—has anchored Polymarket trader consensus at 78% odds for no change in May, reflecting caution amid sticky price pressures and a split-vote decision prioritizing weak growth. The 18.5% implied probability of a further decrease stems from resilient consumption and Banxico's projection for inflation to converge toward the 2-4% target range over the coming year, while hikes at 0.5% appear off the table barring shocks. Traders eye April bi-weekly CPI releases and Q1 GDP data ahead of the May 7 meeting for potential shifts in the market-implied pause.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРешение Банка Мексики в мае
Решение Банка Мексики в мае
Без изменений 78%
Снижение 25%
Повышение <1%
Снижение
20%
Без изменений
78%
Повышение
1%
Без изменений 78%
Снижение 25%
Повышение <1%
Снижение
20%
Без изменений
78%
Повышение
1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26—despite February headline inflation accelerating to 4.02% year-over-year, exceeding the 3% midpoint target—has anchored Polymarket trader consensus at 78% odds for no change in May, reflecting caution amid sticky price pressures and a split-vote decision prioritizing weak growth. The 18.5% implied probability of a further decrease stems from resilient consumption and Banxico's projection for inflation to converge toward the 2-4% target range over the coming year, while hikes at 0.5% appear off the table barring shocks. Traders eye April bi-weekly CPI releases and Q1 GDP data ahead of the May 7 meeting for potential shifts in the market-implied pause.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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