The Bank of Japan’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting, driven by elevated August wholesale inflation of 7.6% and persistent price pressures from yen weakness and energy costs, positions the October 30 decision for no change at 85.5% implied probability. With core CPI holding near 1.8% and board members emphasizing a data-dependent, gradual normalization path without pre-set terminal rates, traders see limited scope for immediate follow-through moves. Recent communications from Governor Ueda and Policy Board member Masu reinforce vigilance on inflation risks without signaling back-to-back tightening, consistent with economist surveys showing the next hike more likely in December or January. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that the post-September pause will allow assessment of labor data and pass-through effects before further adjustment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 86%
25 bps increase 11%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$86,384 Объем
$86,384 Объем
29 окт. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
86%
25 bps increase
11%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 86%
25 bps increase 11%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$86,384 Объем
$86,384 Объем
29 окт. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$3,895 Объем
1%
25 bps decrease
$7,220 Объем
1%
No change
$32,666 Объем
86%
25 bps increase
$32,318 Объем
11%
50+ bps increase
$10,284 Объем
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting, driven by elevated August wholesale inflation of 7.6% and persistent price pressures from yen weakness and energy costs, positions the October 30 decision for no change at 85.5% implied probability. With core CPI holding near 1.8% and board members emphasizing a data-dependent, gradual normalization path without pre-set terminal rates, traders see limited scope for immediate follow-through moves. Recent communications from Governor Ueda and Policy Board member Masu reinforce vigilance on inflation risks without signaling back-to-back tightening, consistent with economist surveys showing the next hike more likely in December or January. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that the post-September pause will allow assessment of labor data and pass-through effects before further adjustment.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$86,384Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting, driven by elevated August wholesale inflation of 7.6% and persistent price pressures from yen weakness and energy costs, positions the October 30 decision for no change at 85.5% implied probability. With core CPI holding near 1.8% and board members emphasizing a data-dependent, gradual normalization path without pre-set terminal rates, traders see limited scope for immediate follow-through moves. Recent communications from Governor Ueda and Policy Board member Masu reinforce vigilance on inflation risks without signaling back-to-back tightening, consistent with economist surveys showing the next hike more likely in December or January. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that the post-September pause will allow assessment of labor data and pass-through effects before further adjustment.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$86,384Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting, driven by elevated August wholesale inflation of 7.6% and persistent price pressures from yen weakness and energy costs, positions the October 30 decision for no change at 85.5% implied probability. With core CPI holding near 1.8% and board members emphasizing a data-dependent, gradual normalization path without pre-set terminal rates, traders see limited scope for immediate follow-through moves. Recent communications from Governor Ueda and Policy Board member Masu reinforce vigilance on inflation risks without signaling back-to-back tightening, consistent with economist surveys showing the next hike more likely in December or January. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that the post-September pause will allow assessment of labor data and pass-through effects before further adjustment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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