The near-even split in implied probabilities between no change (50.5%) and a 25 basis point Selic cut (46.0%) at the November Copom meeting reflects traders balancing persistent inflation pressures against gradual easing momentum. Brazil’s central bank reduced the benchmark rate to 14.00% in August after three prior 25 basis point reductions, with the August Focus survey holding end-2026 Selic expectations steady at 13.75% amid IPCA forecasts near 5.01% for 2026—well above the 3% target. Policymakers have emphasized data dependence without forward guidance, citing upside risks from resilient activity, fiscal measures, and external factors while noting cooling growth. Key swing factors include September inflation prints, labor data, and any shift in the bank’s risk assessment ahead of the November decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 51%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 46%
Снижение на 50 и более б.п. 2.1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. <1%
$12,470 Объем
$12,470 Объем
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
<1%
Без изменений
51%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
46%
Снижение на 50 и более б.п.
2%
Без изменений 51%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 46%
Снижение на 50 и более б.п. 2.1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. <1%
$12,470 Объем
$12,470 Объем
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
<1%
Без изменений
51%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
46%
Снижение на 50 и более б.п.
2%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The near-even split in implied probabilities between no change (50.5%) and a 25 basis point Selic cut (46.0%) at the November Copom meeting reflects traders balancing persistent inflation pressures against gradual easing momentum. Brazil’s central bank reduced the benchmark rate to 14.00% in August after three prior 25 basis point reductions, with the August Focus survey holding end-2026 Selic expectations steady at 13.75% amid IPCA forecasts near 5.01% for 2026—well above the 3% target. Policymakers have emphasized data dependence without forward guidance, citing upside risks from resilient activity, fiscal measures, and external factors while noting cooling growth. Key swing factors include September inflation prints, labor data, and any shift in the bank’s risk assessment ahead of the November decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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