Amish Shah holds a strong lead in trader consensus for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat, vacated by former Rep. David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid, has trended competitive in recent cycles. An early October poll showed Shah at 44% to Jay Feely’s 41%, a statistical tie driven by independents who favor Shah by wide margins amid disapproval of President Trump. The Oct. 7 Clean Elections debate underscored the contrast, with Shah attacking Feely’s alignment on tariffs, the Iran conflict, and the “One Big Beautiful Bill” while Feely emphasized limited government and border security. Early voting has begun, and forecasters rate the race a toss-up or lean Democratic, reinforcing the market’s implied probability ahead of the Nov. 3 general election.