**Trader consensus has coalesced around the 25-29 ships-per-day bracket at near-certain implied probability, reflecting stabilized but suppressed volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid the Houthi-imposed restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic that began in July 2026.** Persistent selective targeting, naval enforcement, and territorial control have kept tanker and overall commodity transits well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 70 vessels daily, with IMF PortWatch and AIS-derived seven-day moving averages settling in the mid-20s to low-30s range through late September. Recent weekly figures—such as 264–290 transits in mid-to-late September—align with this band after accounting for dark-ship activity and selective avoidance. Key swing risks include further escalation that could compress volumes below 25 or any rapid de-escalation that restores broader carrier participation and lifts the average into higher brackets before the September 30 resolution window closes.