Persistent Houthi threats and the Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared in late July have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed through August, with seven-day averages falling to the low-to-mid 20s in early data before partial stabilization near 27–30 daily amid selective tanker movements and elevated war-risk premiums. Recent JMIC and AIS readings for late August show daily counts fluctuating between 36 and 81, yet trader consensus prices the 25–29 band at 70.5% implied probability because many observed transits involve shadow-fleet or dark activity that specific resolution sources may undercount, while container and non-sanctioned tanker flows remain constrained by insurance costs and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. No material de-escalation has occurred, leaving volumes well below 2023–2025 baselines and positioning modest further declines or stability as the dominant near-term outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСреднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?
Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце августа?
25-29 71%
<25 25.7%
35–39 1.3%
30-34 <1%
$37,830 Объем
$37,830 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<25
26%
25-29
71%
30-34
<1%
35–39
1%
40+
<1%
25-29 71%
<25 25.7%
35–39 1.3%
30-34 <1%
$37,830 Объем
$37,830 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<25
$7,697 Объем
26%
25-29
$9,389 Объем
71%
30-34
$8,873 Объем
<1%
35–39
$5,375 Объем
1%
40+
$6,497 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and the Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared in late July have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed through August, with seven-day averages falling to the low-to-mid 20s in early data before partial stabilization near 27–30 daily amid selective tanker movements and elevated war-risk premiums. Recent JMIC and AIS readings for late August show daily counts fluctuating between 36 and 81, yet trader consensus prices the 25–29 band at 70.5% implied probability because many observed transits involve shadow-fleet or dark activity that specific resolution sources may undercount, while container and non-sanctioned tanker flows remain constrained by insurance costs and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. No material de-escalation has occurred, leaving volumes well below 2023–2025 baselines and positioning modest further declines or stability as the dominant near-term outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Объем
$37,830Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and the Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared in late July have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed through August, with seven-day averages falling to the low-to-mid 20s in early data before partial stabilization near 27–30 daily amid selective tanker movements and elevated war-risk premiums. Recent JMIC and AIS readings for late August show daily counts fluctuating between 36 and 81, yet trader consensus prices the 25–29 band at 70.5% implied probability because many observed transits involve shadow-fleet or dark activity that specific resolution sources may undercount, while container and non-sanctioned tanker flows remain constrained by insurance costs and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. No material de-escalation has occurred, leaving volumes well below 2023–2025 baselines and positioning modest further declines or stability as the dominant near-term outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$37,830Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi threats and the Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared in late July have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed through August, with seven-day averages falling to the low-to-mid 20s in early data before partial stabilization near 27–30 daily amid selective tanker movements and elevated war-risk premiums. Recent JMIC and AIS readings for late August show daily counts fluctuating between 36 and 81, yet trader consensus prices the 25–29 band at 70.5% implied probability because many observed transits involve shadow-fleet or dark activity that specific resolution sources may undercount, while container and non-sanctioned tanker flows remain constrained by insurance costs and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. No material de-escalation has occurred, leaving volumes well below 2023–2025 baselines and positioning modest further declines or stability as the dominant near-term outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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