Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to 12-15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, backed by skin-in-the-game capital aligning with real-time AIS data from Windward, Kpler, and MarineTraffic confirming low-teens transits amid the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but US-Iran ceasefire terms cap Iranian approvals at around 15 per day, compounded by recent vessel attacks, IRGC closure threats, and blockade enforcement deterring traffic—evident in April 18's 35 transits rebounding from prior near-halts. This strong positioning holds despite source variances (e.g., isolated reports of 2-3 crossings); realistic challenges include IMF PortWatch revisions or disputes over inbound/outbound counting methodologies prior to final resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСреднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив 19 апреля?
Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив 19 апреля?
12-15 100.0%
<4 <1%
4-7 <1%
8-11 <1%
$123,841 Объем
$123,841 Объем
19 апр. 2026 г.
<4
No
4-7
No
8-11
No
12-15
Yes
16-19
No
20+
No
12-15 100.0%
<4 <1%
4-7 <1%
8-11 <1%
$123,841 Объем
$123,841 Объем
19 апр. 2026 г.
<4
$10,144 Объем
No
4-7
$9,051 Объем
No
8-11
$8,943 Объем
No
12-15
$72,420 Объем
Yes
16-19
$9,494 Объем
No
20+
$13,789 Объем
No
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to 12-15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, backed by skin-in-the-game capital aligning with real-time AIS data from Windward, Kpler, and MarineTraffic confirming low-teens transits amid the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but US-Iran ceasefire terms cap Iranian approvals at around 15 per day, compounded by recent vessel attacks, IRGC closure threats, and blockade enforcement deterring traffic—evident in April 18's 35 transits rebounding from prior near-halts. This strong positioning holds despite source variances (e.g., isolated reports of 2-3 crossings); realistic challenges include IMF PortWatch revisions or disputes over inbound/outbound counting methodologies prior to final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Открытие рынка: Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Объем
$123,841Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to 12-15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, backed by skin-in-the-game capital aligning with real-time AIS data from Windward, Kpler, and MarineTraffic confirming low-teens transits amid the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but US-Iran ceasefire terms cap Iranian approvals at around 15 per day, compounded by recent vessel attacks, IRGC closure threats, and blockade enforcement deterring traffic—evident in April 18's 35 transits rebounding from prior near-halts. This strong positioning holds despite source variances (e.g., isolated reports of 2-3 crossings); realistic challenges include IMF PortWatch revisions or disputes over inbound/outbound counting methodologies prior to final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Объем
$123,841Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to 12-15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, backed by skin-in-the-game capital aligning with real-time AIS data from Windward, Kpler, and MarineTraffic confirming low-teens transits amid the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but US-Iran ceasefire terms cap Iranian approvals at around 15 per day, compounded by recent vessel attacks, IRGC closure threats, and blockade enforcement deterring traffic—evident in April 18's 35 transits rebounding from prior near-halts. This strong positioning holds despite source variances (e.g., isolated reports of 2-3 crossings); realistic challenges include IMF PortWatch revisions or disputes over inbound/outbound counting methodologies prior to final resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы