Incumbent Republican French Hill secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 77% of the vote against a challenger, positioning him to defend the central Arkansas seat he has held since 2015. Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced unopposed in substance after his primary win and brings name recognition to the November 3 general election. The district's strong Republican lean, reinforced by post-2020 redistricting that reduced its marginal competitiveness, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory. No major shifts have emerged since the primaries concluded, with the seat rated solidly Republican by independent forecasters amid Arkansas's broader partisan alignment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAR-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Республиканская партия
88%
Демократическая партия
13%
Республиканская партия
88%
Демократическая партия
13%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 77% of the vote against a challenger, positioning him to defend the central Arkansas seat he has held since 2015. Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced unopposed in substance after his primary win and brings name recognition to the November 3 general election. The district's strong Republican lean, reinforced by post-2020 redistricting that reduced its marginal competitiveness, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory. No major shifts have emerged since the primaries concluded, with the seat rated solidly Republican by independent forecasters amid Arkansas's broader partisan alignment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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