Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline and superior recent revenue momentum underpin the 68.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI for a higher closing IPO market cap. The company confidentially filed its S-1 in early June, targets a late-September prospectus and mid-October listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation, and has posted explosive growth with annualized run rates rising from $9 billion at year-end 2025 to $47 billion in May and $65 billion by July. In contrast, OpenAI filed a week later, last valued privately at $852 billion, and has shifted toward a 2027 debut after its CEO rejected sub-$1 trillion pricing amid SpaceX volatility and infrastructure spending concerns. Traders appear to price Anthropic’s nearer-term liquidity event and faster scaling as decisive.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAnthropic
69% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2028 г.
Anthropic
69% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2028 г.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline and superior recent revenue momentum underpin the 68.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI for a higher closing IPO market cap. The company confidentially filed its S-1 in early June, targets a late-September prospectus and mid-October listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation, and has posted explosive growth with annualized run rates rising from $9 billion at year-end 2025 to $47 billion in May and $65 billion by July. In contrast, OpenAI filed a week later, last valued privately at $852 billion, and has shifted toward a 2027 debut after its CEO rejected sub-$1 trillion pricing amid SpaceX volatility and infrastructure spending concerns. Traders appear to price Anthropic’s nearer-term liquidity event and faster scaling as decisive.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Aug 19, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
Объем
$27Дата окончания
31 дек. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 12:23 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline and superior recent revenue momentum underpin the 68.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI for a higher closing IPO market cap. The company confidentially filed its S-1 in early June, targets a late-September prospectus and mid-October listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation, and has posted explosive growth with annualized run rates rising from $9 billion at year-end 2025 to $47 billion in May and $65 billion by July. In contrast, OpenAI filed a week later, last valued privately at $852 billion, and has shifted toward a 2027 debut after its CEO rejected sub-$1 trillion pricing amid SpaceX volatility and infrastructure spending concerns. Traders appear to price Anthropic’s nearer-term liquidity event and faster scaling as decisive.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Объем
$27Дата окончания
31 дек. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 12:23 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline and superior recent revenue momentum underpin the 68.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI for a higher closing IPO market cap. The company confidentially filed its S-1 in early June, targets a late-September prospectus and mid-October listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation, and has posted explosive growth with annualized run rates rising from $9 billion at year-end 2025 to $47 billion in May and $65 billion by July. In contrast, OpenAI filed a week later, last valued privately at $852 billion, and has shifted toward a 2027 debut after its CEO rejected sub-$1 trillion pricing amid SpaceX volatility and infrastructure spending concerns. Traders appear to price Anthropic’s nearer-term liquidity event and faster scaling as decisive.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли рыночная капитализация Anthropic составлять 600 млрд долларов США или больше к моменту закрытия рынка в день IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года?
96%
Да
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
86%
IPO Anthropic закроется с рыночной капитализацией выше $1,5 трлн?
95%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы